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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Playing with numbers.

Here's another interesting email that was sent to me. Sorry, once again, I don't have a link. Click on the graphics for a larger view.

If the data doesn't fit the theory, change the data...

As some may know, a discovery by that pesky Canadian (one of the two man team that discovered Dr. Mann’s gross statistical error that destroyed the “Hockey Stick” graph of the 3rd IPCC Assessment Report) showed another significant failure of climate science math.

That Canadian, Steve McIntyre, proved that Dr. Hansen of NASA (Hansen is one of the “Fathers of the Modern Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory” and is infamous for his hysterical ‘doomed Earth’ scenarios of Global Warming, such as +100 ft. sea level rises) failed to program correctly in his software an adjustment to his Y2K calculations, whereas the correction suddenly made the late 20th century warming no longer significant. The graph above was used to discover this calculation error (it subtracted the raw data from the adjusted data which exposed the changes) – you simply can’t miss the sudden and massive jump at year 2000. Of course, this erroneous jump was used to claim the “sudden and urgent Anthropogenic Warming Effect” – but now we know it is merely a calculation error.

The corrected data left the 1930’s warming period far more significant then later in the century. The consequence, of course, is the refutation BY OBSERVATION that we are not being subjected to any anthropogenic climate influences (other than human error J - one pundit humorously claimed that this actually did prove anthropogenic effect – the effect that some humans can’t think clearly!) Of course, there are still those that believe a computer can model the infinitely complex Earth climate and still hold to the belief that man is somehow causing the climate change. Ah! – the modern state of science – where a computer model is more valid than reality!

But if it couldn’t become more bizarre, Dr. Hansen fights back ….. by changing the data! If using the current data with the correct software shows that there is no significant warming, then obviously the data must be wrong! After the revelation of his software error (and its correction), Dr. Hansen has recently applied adjustments to the data that (with no surprise) causes the past to be cooler! This adjustment now moves the year 1998 into a tie with the 1930’s.

Here is a sample of one site’s change difference.

This is the picture of the site.

You can see in the above graph that Hansen significantly dropped the Detroit Lake temperatures radically between 1900 and 1930 by about half a degree, and in the 30’s a further dramatic drop. It’s an amazing result – it completely removes the 30’s warming signal! Why the change? Of course, Hansen and NASA refuses to explain themselves (at this time). Heck they didn’t even tell anyone they made an adjustment until one of the people doing the audit via discovered the sudden update a few days ago while he was trying to understand why his (now old) information didn’t match up with the NASA site.

You would consider altering the data DOWNWARD to adjust for an UPWARD bias, such as Urban Heat Island Effect (concrete and asphalt is warmer than dirt). But this alteration of Hansen’s makes no sense…. the urbanization of the site occurred after the 1950’s with the building structures, roads, change in land use, and in the later in 1990’s when the monitor was changed from a Stephenson box (still there but not in use) to a MMTS digital system (the thing that looks like a can on a short pole). UHI effects occurred in the later in the 1980’s, not in the beginning of the century. In fact, Hansen actually creates a double bias in the 1970’s by making a further UPWARD adjustment to the temperature during the start of the urbanization in the 1980’s. It’s as if he is saying that putting Detroit Lake sensor near large heat sources lowers the reading? It appears he completely misunderstands UHI effects!

But Hansen has accomplished his goal …. 1990’s are now tied with 1930’s in warming. Gosh, man-made global warming is proven – it just takes the hand of a man to invent the data!

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