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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

It had to happen...

Ten's of thousands of people have died in Myanmar, with ten's of thousands more missing. I knew it was just a matter of time before someone tried to blame the cyclone on global warming. No surprise that it came from Al Gore.


“And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,” Gore said. “And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming.”


There's a slight problem with that. Not only has the globe not been warming since 1998, not only has a slight cooling trend begun, not only have the oceans been cooling, but the earth is expected to continue cooling for another 10 years.

As if that weren't enough, historically speaking, such extreme weather events are associated with cold periods, such as the Little Ice Age. With Solar Cycle 24 still not showing up, a large El Nino and a PDO shift, I'm increasingly concerned that we're in for some major cooling in the near future.

No time to elaborate with links and references today - I need to get ready for work. I recommend checking out the climate related links in my side bar, instead.







6 comments:

  1. SQUISHING OUR WAY THROUGH GORE.

    AN APPLICATION OF THE GORE INDEX TO THE MAY 6 “FRESH AIR” NPR PROGRAM

    A measurement of imprecision: Number of qualifiers in each sentence divided by the number of sentences. This calculation expressed as a index reading is a measure of imprecision.

    This measure is called the Gore Index.

    Any Gore Index reading in excess of 1.02 indicates that a presentation is not factual.

    For purposes of calculating the Gore Index, the following is a textual analysis of Former Vice President Al Gore statements in an interview on NPR’s May 6 “Fresh Air” broadcast.

    FIRST SENTENCE

    “And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,”

    Number of Qualifiers (3)

    “to way on up there”
    “to much higher numbers”
    “now being speculated.”


    SECOND SENTENCE

    Gore said. “And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh.”

    Number of Qualifiers (1)

    “catastrophic storm”

    THIRD SENTENCE

    “The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming.”

    Number of Qualifiers (6)

    “strongest cyclone”
    “more than fifty years”
    “seeing consequences”
    “have long predicted”
    “might be associated”
    “continued global warming”

    FOURTH SENTENCE

    Gore claimed global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.

    Number of Qualifiers (2)

    “forcing ocean temperatures to rise”
    “causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify”

    FIFTH SENTENCE

    “It’s also important to note that the emerging consensus among the climate scientists is although any individual storm can’t be linked singularly to global warming – we’ve always had hurricanes,” Gore said.

    Number of Qualifiers (2)

    “emerging consensus among climate scientists”
    “any individual storm can’t be linked singularly to global warming”

    SIXTH SENTENCE

    “Nevertheless, the trend toward more Category 5 storms – the larger ones and trend toward stronger and more destructive storms appears to be linked to global warming and specifically to the impact of global warming on higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful.”

    Number of Qualifiers (8)

    “trend toward more Category 5 storms”
    “trend toward stronger and more destructive storms”
    “appears to be linked”
    “impact of global warming”
    “higher ocean temperatures”
    “in the top couple of hundred of feet”
    “which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms”
    “makes them more powerful”


    Twenty-two (22) qualifiers in six sentences divided by six (6) sentences yields a Gore Index reading of 3.67.

    A Gore Index reading this high indicates a presentation completely bereft of factual content.

    Courtesy of the WCRX-LP editorial collective.

    ReplyDelete
  2. *L* Well done.

    Personally, Gore is starting to really disgust me. In AIT, he shamelessly used Katrina and 9/11. Now he's using Myanmar. Sickening.

    ReplyDelete
  3. mamaoftwo9:40 PM

    :) you should read Polarbear's "1 grain of salt" post on his blog sometime. I think you'll agree.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Of course, you have to also notice the qualifiers on all of the information about the cooling trend for the next 10 years... I'm too tired to find the exact quotes (I just tried and brain fog is killing me) but basically sources show data that demonstrates things are cooling, but then they will qualify their data in their closing statements they say "but this should not be taken as an indication that global warming is not happening".

    What exactly are they afraid of? Is there going to be an AGW Inquisition where they torture the non-believers?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I know the qualifiers you're talking about, Polarbear. It's almost funny to read them. It reminds me a lot of the obesity research that's out there. Researchers will study a group of people meticulously for 2, 4, 13 years and find NOTHING to say being fat is more dangerous or unhealthy than being thin (dieting, on the other hand, is a whole 'nother story). Then, at the conclusion, they'll say that even though their findings don't support it, loose weight anyways, because being fat is bad.

    It's the same thing here - all the signs are pointing to cooling, so they finally have to say cooling is happening - but warming's going to happen anyways! It's all our fault! The End is still Nigh!!! er... eventually.

    What are they afraid of? Considering the reports of loss of funding, loss of jobs, intimidation and even death threats, perhaps the inquisition isn't that far off as an analogy. :-(

    ReplyDelete
  6. Is anyone amused that two of you arrive at thoughts about the Inquisition in a sequence of notes that begins "Squishing our way through Gore."

    Also, labeling the phenomenon an "Inquisition" isn't a metaphor, the label is a fair description.

    WCRX-LP editorial collective

    ReplyDelete

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